Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Crook County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### March 2026
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Huda Alkitkat, PhD.**  
*Population Estimates Manager*

**Seth Dowden**  
*Research Assistant*

**Neal Marquez, PhD.**  
*Population Forecast Manager*

**Gilbert Montcho, PhD.**  
*Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst*

**Scott Nordstrom, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*
]

**Aja Sutton, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*

**David Swanson, PhD.**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*

**Joshua Wilde, PhD.**  
*Research Scientist*
]

---

# Crook County Outline

- Introduction
- Updates
- County Overview
- UGB Forecasts

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.pux-right {
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---

# PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts

.puz-left[
- For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts
- For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs
- These forecasts must
    - Be updated at least every four years
    - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon
    - Include most up to date data
    - Allow for public input/objections
    - Methods & results publicly available

]

.puz-right[
![Oregon Seal](https://sos.oregon.gov/PublishingImages/Oregon-State-Seal-Navy-Gold.png)
]

---
# Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle

![Program Cycle](program_cycle.png)

---
# Methods Review: Cohort Component Method

.pux-left[
- For Counties
- Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate
  - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing
- Deaths = All Population * Death Rate
  - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing
- Migration = Past migration events
  - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward

]

---
# Methods Review: Housing Unit Method

.pull-left[
- For UGBs
- `$P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC$`
- `$PPH$`: Persons per household
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$OCC$`: Occupancy Rate
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$\Delta HU$`: annual change in housing units
  - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends

]

---
# After this meeting

- Email for further follow up  
- March 30, 2026 forecast discussion period ends
- Chance to formally appeal until May 15, 2026
  - Will review appeals in the following week
- No further changes will be made after May 22, 2026
- Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2026

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Updates

---
# Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback

- Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations
- Updated GIS UGB boundary lines 
- Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories
- Incorporate group quarter expansions
- Adjusted housing unit productions
- Housing build moratoriums
- General concerns
  - Restrictions on development  
  - Access to others responses
  
---
# Incoporation of 2025 Certified Estimates

![Estimates](./pop_est_page.png)

---
# Slowing Growth Across the State

![Oregonion](./opb_pop_growth_slow.png)

---

# Changes in Vital Trends

![Oregonion](./births_and_deaths.png)

---

# International Migration

![lex](./inter_mig.png)

---

# Domestic Mobility

![housing](./dom_mobility.png)

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Crook County

---
# Summary of Considerations

- Crook County's population growth has been consistent and high
- One of the fastest three growing counties in the state
- Last population forecasts reflect this
- No changes made

---

# Crook at a Glance

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Crook </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 24,738 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.91% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 24.94% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.11% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.46 (11,159 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Crook Employment Changes

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County: Crook Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,276","Year: 2013 County: Crook Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,216","Year: 2018 County: Crook Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,170","Year: 2023 County: Crook Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,257"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0],"x":[2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[26,35,70,191,543],"text":["Year: 2003 County: Crook Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 26","Year: 2008 County: Crook Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 35","Year: 2013 County: Crook Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 70","Year: 2018 County: Crook Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 191","Year: 2023 County: Crook Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 543"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.5,0.5,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.5,1997.5,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[338,420,421,630,550,731,811],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Crook Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 338","Year: 1998 County: Crook Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 420","Year: 2003 County: Crook Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 421","Year: 2008 County: Crook Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 630","Year: 2013 County: Crook 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1998 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 270","Year: 2003 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 275","Year: 2008 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 165","Year: 2013 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 222","Year: 2018 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 184","Year: 2023 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 192"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,166,255,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Natural resources and mining","legendgroup":"Natural resources and 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transportation, and utilities Sector Jobs: 1,809","Year: 2013 County: Crook Industry: Trade, transportation, and utilities Sector Jobs: 1,630","Year: 2018 County: Crook Industry: Trade, transportation, and utilities Sector Jobs: 1,080","Year: 2023 County: Crook Industry: Trade, transportation, and utilities Sector Jobs: 1,221"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(239,103,235,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","legendgroup":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.5,0.5,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1995,2000,2005.0454545454545,2010.0454545454545,2015.0454545454545,2020.0454545454545,2025.0454545454545],"y":[95,160,203,220,236,290,265],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Crook 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---

# Crook Migration Flows

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---

# Crook Population

.pulll-left[
Crook county is expected to grow, albeit at a rate slower than what has been observed in the past.
]

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---

# Crook Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Growth has been sustained by high migration to the county across a broad range of ages.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-cc490dd3b2957d4c24e4" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Crook Births

.pulll-left[
Births have been slightly increasing in the county but are expected to level off in the coming years.
]

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---

# Crook Deaths

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---

# Crook Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

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The population aged 65 and over makes up a substantial portion of the county as of 2020.
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---

# Crook Race and Ethnicity

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]

---

# Crook UGB Population Changes

---

# Crook UGBs: Prineville in Context

.pux-right[
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]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.60% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.50% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.87% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,293 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3,022 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,579 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.50% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.22% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.04% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.46 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.55 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.46 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $13,512 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $30,435 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $63,904 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.19% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.39% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.57% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Crook County: Prineville UGB Boundaries

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# Prineville UGB Pop Forecast

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# Prineville UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts